Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.,Ltd (600449.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.98 - $5.64$4.80
Multi-Stage$11.46 - $12.66$12.05
Blended Fair Value$8.42
Current Price$13.17
Upside-36.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.76%-3.61%0.320.450.620.700.560.380.320.230.240.11
YoY Growth---29.35%-27.65%-11.88%25.20%46.41%18.84%38.46%-3.73%123.92%-76.36%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.71%3.80%4.99%3.71%3.04%3.29%2.02%1.88%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)292.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)115.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)176.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.4036.5021.90
Cash Retained (M)176.28176.28176.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.40-36.50-21.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.87139.77154.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Fair Value$3.98$4.80$5.64
Upside / Downside-69.80%-63.56%-57.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)292.02278.56265.73253.48241.80230.66237.58
Payout Ratio39.64%49.71%59.78%69.85%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)115.74138.47158.85177.07193.27207.59219.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.61%-4.61%-3.61%
Year 1 PV (M)128.88130.24131.61
Year 2 PV (M)137.61140.54143.50
Year 3 PV (M)142.76147.35152.03
Year 4 PV (M)145.03151.27157.72
Year 5 PV (M)144.99152.83161.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,628.614,879.045,140.19
Equity Value (M)5,327.875,601.275,886.06
Shares Outstanding (M)464.90464.90464.90
Fair Value$11.46$12.05$12.66
Upside / Downside-12.98%-8.52%-3.87%

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