Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical., Ltd (600436.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.34 - $193.29$122.04
Multi-Stage$59.87 - $65.37$62.57
Blended Fair Value$92.31
Current Price$196.79
Upside-53.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS40.21%27.08%3.531.301.260.940.870.650.470.330.280.27
YoY Growth--171.11%3.16%33.63%8.97%33.04%38.13%44.20%18.38%3.60%-16.97%
Dividend Yield--1.74%0.56%0.44%0.30%0.30%0.52%0.40%0.39%0.55%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,419.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)716.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,702.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)483.93302.46181.47
Cash Retained (M)1,702.961,702.961,702.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-483.93-302.46-181.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,219.021,400.501,521.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)602.80602.80602.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.022.322.52
LTM Dividend per Share1.191.191.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.022.322.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.213.513.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.34$122.04$193.29
Upside / Downside-57.65%-37.98%-1.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,419.672,576.942,744.452,922.833,112.823,315.153,414.61
Payout Ratio29.62%41.70%53.77%65.85%77.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)716.711,074.481,475.741,924.632,425.632,983.643,158.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)971.47980.68989.89
Year 2 PV (M)1,206.351,229.331,252.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,422.461,463.291,504.90
Year 4 PV (M)1,620.871,683.201,747.32
Year 5 PV (M)1,802.601,889.671,980.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,066.8930,470.8331,928.51
Equity Value (M)36,090.6537,717.0139,403.20
Shares Outstanding (M)602.80602.80602.80
Fair Value$59.87$62.57$65.37
Upside / Downside-69.58%-68.20%-66.78%

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