Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haohua Chemical Science & Technology Corp., Ltd. (600378.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.16 - $72.49$41.61
Multi-Stage$18.78 - $20.51$19.63
Blended Fair Value$30.62
Current Price$30.72
Upside-0.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.34%31.47%0.370.510.250.240.220.160.090.010.010.02
YoY Growth---27.89%107.95%1.37%11.84%36.54%72.87%1,181.83%-40.00%-37.50%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--1.38%1.50%0.55%0.64%0.97%0.91%0.76%0.06%0.09%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,434.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)497.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)937.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.84179.28107.57
Cash Retained (M)937.00937.00937.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.84-179.28-107.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)650.16757.72829.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,244.961,244.961,244.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.520.610.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.520.610.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.16$41.61$72.49
Upside / Downside-11.60%35.44%135.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,434.201,527.431,626.711,732.451,845.061,964.982,023.93
Payout Ratio34.67%45.73%56.80%67.87%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)497.21698.56923.981,175.761,456.371,768.491,872.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)634.39640.41646.42
Year 2 PV (M)762.04776.56791.21
Year 3 PV (M)880.62905.90931.66
Year 4 PV (M)990.601,028.701,067.88
Year 5 PV (M)1,092.411,145.181,199.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,019.8219,938.4820,892.30
Equity Value (M)23,379.8924,435.2225,529.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,244.961,244.961,244.96
Fair Value$18.78$19.63$20.51
Upside / Downside-38.87%-36.11%-33.25%

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