Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Sino-Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (600360.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.80 - $8.85$5.57
Multi-Stage$4.79 - $5.26$5.02
Blended Fair Value$5.30
Current Price$8.31
Upside-36.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.13%3.57%0.110.130.150.120.150.140.090.080.080.07
YoY Growth---15.78%-15.54%26.69%-16.99%2.71%65.20%4.49%9.21%4.27%-5.97%
Dividend Yield--1.62%2.01%2.03%1.68%2.28%1.91%1.30%1.06%0.96%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.0821.9313.16
Cash Retained (M)115.54115.54115.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.08-21.93-13.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)80.4693.62102.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)934.93934.93934.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.43%3.43%4.43%
Fair Value$3.80$5.57$8.85
Upside / Downside-54.29%-32.96%6.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.41181.43187.66194.10200.77207.66213.89
Payout Ratio34.13%45.30%56.48%67.65%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.8782.20105.99131.32158.26186.89197.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate2.43%3.43%4.43%
Year 1 PV (M)76.4577.2077.94
Year 2 PV (M)91.6893.4895.30
Year 3 PV (M)105.65108.77111.96
Year 4 PV (M)118.42123.11127.94
Year 5 PV (M)130.06136.54143.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,956.274,153.194,357.88
Equity Value (M)4,478.524,692.284,914.28
Shares Outstanding (M)934.93934.93934.93
Fair Value$4.79$5.02$5.26
Upside / Downside-42.36%-39.60%-36.75%

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