Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co.,Ltd (600352.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.37 - $10.08$8.06
Multi-Stage$14.20 - $15.62$14.89
Blended Fair Value$11.48
Current Price$9.97
Upside15.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.45%12.57%0.660.470.250.250.450.530.530.450.260.49
YoY Growth--39.29%91.75%-1.63%-44.09%-15.37%0.24%16.05%72.20%-46.36%144.68%
Dividend Yield--6.98%5.48%2.39%2.29%3.09%4.44%2.79%4.07%2.81%4.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,073.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,078.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)995.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)414.79259.25155.55
Cash Retained (M)995.33995.33995.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-414.79-259.25-155.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)580.54736.09839.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.333,253.333,253.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.53%-0.53%0.47%
Fair Value$6.37$8.06$10.08
Upside / Downside-36.08%-19.11%1.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,073.962,063.062,052.212,041.422,030.682,020.002,080.60
Payout Ratio52.01%59.61%67.20%74.80%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,078.631,229.711,379.181,527.051,673.311,818.001,924.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-1.53%-0.53%0.47%
Year 1 PV (M)1,144.621,156.241,167.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,194.911,219.301,243.94
Year 3 PV (M)1,231.461,269.361,308.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,256.041,307.841,361.23
Year 5 PV (M)1,270.211,336.031,404.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,086.1042,163.2244,325.56
Equity Value (M)46,183.3448,451.9950,811.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3,253.333,253.333,253.33
Fair Value$14.20$14.89$15.62
Upside / Downside42.38%49.38%56.65%

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