Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

China Petroleum Engineering Corporation (600339.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $5.51$3.23
Multi-Stage$1.99 - $2.18$2.09
Blended Fair Value$2.66
Current Price$3.39
Upside-21.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.20%9.12%0.060.050.030.050.050.060.040.010.030.05
YoY Growth--15.49%63.52%-45.20%7.12%-19.28%48.61%505.46%-76.97%-38.31%109.31%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.49%0.79%1.81%1.40%2.37%0.88%0.17%0.42%0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)526.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)377.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.3165.8239.49
Cash Retained (M)377.93377.93377.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.31-65.82-39.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)272.62312.11338.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,582.295,582.295,582.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Fair Value$2.13$3.23$5.51
Upside / Downside-37.15%-4.63%62.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)526.56551.42577.45604.72633.27663.16683.06
Payout Ratio28.23%40.58%52.94%65.29%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.63223.78305.68394.82491.70596.85631.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.39%7.39%7.39%
Growth Rate3.72%4.72%5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)206.38208.37210.36
Year 2 PV (M)260.00265.04270.12
Year 3 PV (M)309.71318.75327.97
Year 4 PV (M)355.72369.63383.96
Year 5 PV (M)398.21417.78438.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,592.4710,063.8910,553.67
Equity Value (M)11,122.4911,643.4712,184.19
Shares Outstanding (M)5,582.295,582.295,582.29
Fair Value$1.99$2.09$2.18
Upside / Downside-41.23%-38.47%-35.62%

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