Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Kai Kai Industry Company Limited (600272.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.53 - $0.82$0.66
Multi-Stage$0.69 - $0.75$0.72
Blended Fair Value$0.69
Current Price$12.69
Upside-94.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.25%3.64%0.050.050.030.020.030.040.050.030.020.04
YoY Growth---5.60%81.03%72.55%-39.01%-37.87%-10.93%70.52%19.97%-45.03%27.73%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.47%0.30%0.15%0.40%0.64%0.53%0.27%0.14%0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.651.660.99
Cash Retained (M)2.292.292.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.65-1.66-0.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.370.631.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)248.02248.02248.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate1.64%2.64%3.64%
Fair Value$0.53$0.66$0.82
Upside / Downside-95.84%-94.78%-93.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2613.6113.9714.3414.7215.1115.56
Payout Ratio82.76%84.21%85.66%87.10%88.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9811.4611.9712.4913.0313.6014.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate1.64%2.64%3.64%
Year 1 PV (M)10.3310.4310.53
Year 2 PV (M)9.729.9110.11
Year 3 PV (M)9.149.419.69
Year 4 PV (M)8.608.949.29
Year 5 PV (M)8.088.498.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)124.32130.55137.04
Equity Value (M)170.19177.74185.57
Shares Outstanding (M)248.02248.02248.02
Fair Value$0.69$0.72$0.75
Upside / Downside-94.59%-94.35%-94.10%

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