Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Expressway Company Limited (600012.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.96 - $118.68$54.83
Multi-Stage$20.62 - $22.56$21.57
Blended Fair Value$38.20
Current Price$13.33
Upside186.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.00%12.79%0.730.550.550.230.230.250.230.230.230.23
YoY Growth--33.28%0.00%139.13%0.00%-8.00%8.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%4.55%
Dividend Yield--4.26%4.00%6.16%2.97%3.16%4.89%3.27%2.41%1.38%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,925.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)177.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,748.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)385.02240.64144.38
Cash Retained (M)1,748.041,748.041,748.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-385.02-240.64-144.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,363.021,507.401,603.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.910.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.96$54.83$118.68
Upside / Downside147.23%311.36%790.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,925.122,050.262,183.522,325.452,476.612,637.592,716.72
Payout Ratio9.20%25.36%41.52%57.68%73.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)177.08519.92906.581,341.311,828.722,373.832,512.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.47%8.47%8.47%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)474.81479.31483.81
Year 2 PV (M)756.09770.49785.03
Year 3 PV (M)1,021.591,050.921,080.80
Year 4 PV (M)1,271.981,320.891,371.21
Year 5 PV (M)1,507.871,580.701,656.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,168.4130,577.2532,040.02
Equity Value (M)34,200.7535,779.5737,417.19
Shares Outstanding (M)1,658.611,658.611,658.61
Fair Value$20.62$21.57$22.56
Upside / Downside54.69%61.83%69.24%

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