Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Daido Steel Co., Ltd. (5471.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,135.34 - $18,132.88$7,197.82
Multi-Stage$2,500.68 - $2,736.22$2,616.30
Blended Fair Value$4,907.06
Current Price$995.70
Upside392.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.43%15.43%48.0946.9840.8321.455.1524.5125.5524.5213.1117.67
YoY Growth--2.36%15.06%90.33%316.76%-79.00%-4.05%4.20%86.95%-25.77%54.29%
Dividend Yield--4.83%3.14%3.42%3.07%0.47%3.71%3.07%2.39%1.01%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,955.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,772.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,182.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,591.003,494.382,096.63
Cash Retained (M)25,182.5025,182.5025,182.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,591.00-3,494.38-2,096.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)19,591.5021,688.1323,085.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)208.62208.62208.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share93.91103.96110.66
LTM Dividend per Share13.2913.2913.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share93.91103.96110.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend107.20117.25123.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,135.34$7,197.82$18,132.88
Upside / Downside315.32%622.89%1,721.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,955.0029,772.0831,707.2633,768.2335,963.1738,300.7739,449.80
Payout Ratio9.92%25.93%41.95%57.97%73.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,772.507,721.1413,301.4019,574.4626,606.8334,470.7036,491.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.23%8.23%8.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,066.717,133.707,200.68
Year 2 PV (M)11,142.1511,354.3811,568.60
Year 3 PV (M)15,007.1215,437.9215,876.89
Year 4 PV (M)18,669.6619,387.6520,126.14
Year 5 PV (M)22,137.5423,206.7924,316.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)447,676.26469,299.19491,749.68
Equity Value (M)521,699.44545,819.61570,838.95
Shares Outstanding (M)208.62208.62208.62
Fair Value$2,500.68$2,616.30$2,736.22
Upside / Downside151.15%162.76%174.80%

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