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Definitive Analysis

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Yotai Refractories Co., Ltd. (5357.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,683.77 - $3,030.97$2,247.49
Multi-Stage$2,425.78 - $2,663.42$2,542.34
Blended Fair Value$2,394.92
Current Price$1,720.00
Upside39.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS39.33%24.41%106.5352.1852.0432.0014.2920.2916.7011.9711.9511.97
YoY Growth--104.15%0.27%62.61%124.00%-29.57%21.46%39.53%0.18%-0.18%-0.19%
Dividend Yield--6.12%2.88%3.61%2.29%1.14%2.81%3.00%1.76%3.17%4.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,213.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)556.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,656.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)442.64276.65165.99
Cash Retained (M)1,656.671,656.671,656.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-442.64-276.65-165.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,214.031,380.021,490.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share66.0575.0881.10
LTM Dividend per Share30.2830.2830.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share66.0575.0881.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend96.33105.36111.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Fair Value$1,683.77$2,247.49$3,030.97
Upside / Downside-2.11%30.67%76.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,213.222,264.742,317.472,371.422,426.632,483.122,557.61
Payout Ratio25.15%38.12%51.09%64.06%77.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)556.55863.261,183.951,519.101,869.212,234.812,365.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate1.33%2.33%3.33%
Year 1 PV (M)797.96805.84813.71
Year 2 PV (M)1,011.621,031.691,051.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,199.821,235.691,272.28
Year 4 PV (M)1,364.691,419.361,475.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,508.191,584.101,663.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,703.6340,651.5242,677.06
Equity Value (M)44,585.9246,728.2048,953.69
Shares Outstanding (M)18.3818.3818.38
Fair Value$2,425.78$2,542.34$2,663.42
Upside / Downside41.03%47.81%54.85%

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