Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Radiant Technology Corporation (5315.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.44 - $22.15$18.04
Multi-Stage$31.63 - $34.81$33.19
Blended Fair Value$25.61
Current Price$22.65
Upside13.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-11.31%0.00%0.791.791.290.810.791.450.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---55.56%38.46%58.38%3.24%-45.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.40%9.73%5.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2621.4112.85
Cash Retained (M)86.2386.2386.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.26-21.41-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.9764.8273.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.44$18.04$22.15
Upside / Downside-36.23%-20.36%-2.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.31169.60167.90166.22164.56162.91167.80
Payout Ratio49.66%57.73%65.80%73.87%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.0897.91110.48122.78134.83146.62155.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)90.8691.7892.71
Year 2 PV (M)95.1397.0899.05
Year 3 PV (M)98.11101.14104.24
Year 4 PV (M)99.97104.12108.39
Year 5 PV (M)100.89106.14111.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,905.753,057.053,214.60
Equity Value (M)3,390.703,557.323,730.61
Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
Fair Value$31.63$33.19$34.81
Upside / Downside39.67%46.53%53.67%

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