Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gas Malaysia Berhad (5209.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.97 - $9.56$6.81
Multi-Stage$8.28 - $9.08$8.67
Blended Fair Value$7.74
Current Price$4.31
Upside79.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.09%0.00%0.230.230.190.160.140.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.41%20.30%20.32%15.13%-1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.36%6.49%5.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)336.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4150.8830.53
Cash Retained (M)70.7770.7770.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.41-50.88-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.6419.8940.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$4.97$6.81$9.56
Upside / Downside15.27%57.91%121.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.05415.84424.81433.98443.35452.92466.51
Payout Ratio82.61%84.09%85.57%87.05%88.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)336.28349.68363.50377.76392.46407.63431.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)325.67328.89332.11
Year 2 PV (M)315.29321.56327.89
Year 3 PV (M)305.16314.30323.62
Year 4 PV (M)295.27307.12319.32
Year 5 PV (M)285.62300.01314.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,101.039,559.8510,036.99
Equity Value (M)10,628.0311,131.7311,654.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
Fair Value$8.28$8.67$9.08
Upside / Downside92.05%101.15%110.60%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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