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Definitive Analysis

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Tsumura & Co. (4540.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29,735.16 - $72,362.00$67,813.79
Multi-Stage$10,564.73 - $11,562.78$11,054.59
Blended Fair Value$39,434.19
Current Price$3,621.00
Upside989.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.00%7.17%119.7868.0665.0165.0165.0165.0264.9758.4859.4659.95
YoY Growth--75.99%4.70%0.00%0.00%-0.02%0.08%11.10%-1.65%-0.82%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.45%1.65%2.44%2.13%1.86%2.31%2.11%1.63%1.30%2.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27,403.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,382.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,021.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,480.603,425.382,055.23
Cash Retained (M)17,021.0017,021.0017,021.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,480.60-3,425.38-2,055.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,540.4013,595.6314,965.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
LTM Dividend per Share137.85137.85137.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share153.23180.52198.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend291.09318.37336.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29,735.16$67,813.79$72,362.00
Upside / Downside721.19%1,772.79%1,898.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27,403.0029,184.2031,081.1733,101.4435,253.0437,544.4838,670.82
Payout Ratio37.89%48.31%58.73%69.15%79.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,382.0014,098.6218,254.5322,891.1528,053.4133,790.0435,770.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,109.8013,234.0713,358.33
Year 2 PV (M)15,783.7416,084.3816,387.85
Year 3 PV (M)18,404.6118,932.9419,471.28
Year 4 PV (M)20,973.1721,779.7422,609.36
Year 5 PV (M)23,490.2124,624.7925,802.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)703,895.64737,894.07773,193.69
Equity Value (M)795,657.19832,549.99870,823.32
Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
Fair Value$10,564.73$11,054.59$11,562.78
Upside / Downside191.76%205.29%219.33%

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