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Definitive Analysis

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HsinLi Chemical Industrial Corp. (4303.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,369.91 - $2,796.14$2,618.54
Multi-Stage$3,864.94 - $4,273.58$4,065.15
Blended Fair Value$3,341.84
Current Price$63.58
Upside5,156.13%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS1.79%0.00%1.170.000.940.271.071.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%253.57%-75.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.73%0.00%6.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,187.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,095.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)237.55148.4789.08
Cash Retained (M)1,095.961,095.961,095.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-237.55-148.47-89.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)858.40947.491,006.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.5978.5978.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.0612.81
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.9212.0612.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.0913.2213.98
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,369.91$2,618.54$2,796.14
Upside / Downside3,627.45%4,018.50%4,297.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,187.761,175.881,164.121,152.481,140.951,129.541,163.43
Payout Ratio7.73%24.18%40.64%57.09%73.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.80284.36473.07657.97839.121,016.591,076.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-19.19%-19.19%-19.19%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)348.32351.88355.43
Year 2 PV (M)709.80724.36739.07
Year 3 PV (M)1,209.271,246.671,284.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,889.091,967.382,048.09
Year 5 PV (M)2,803.362,949.343,101.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)296,766.93312,220.27328,310.77
Equity Value (M)303,726.77319,459.90335,839.52
Shares Outstanding (M)78.5978.5978.59
Fair Value$3,864.94$4,065.15$4,273.58
Upside / Downside5,978.86%6,293.75%6,621.57%

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