Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $2.77 - $4.73 | $3.62 |
| Multi-Stage | $5.52 - $6.06 | $5.79 |
| Blended Fair Value | $4.70 | |
| Current Price | $3.78 | |
| Upside | 24.40% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 4.84% | -1.81% | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 16.92% | 8.33% | 166.67% | -66.67% | 12.50% | -33.33% | 50.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% | -16.53% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.61% | 3.43% | 3.99% | 1.27% | 2.87% | 4.44% | 10.56% | 13.64% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 89.83 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 80.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 9.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 17.97 | 11.23 | 6.74 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 9.83 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -17.97 | -11.23 | -6.74 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -8.13 | -1.39 | 3.10 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.00 | 400.00 | 400.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.18 | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.14% | 0.86% | 1.86% |
| Fair Value | $2.77 | $3.62 | $4.73 |
| Upside / Downside | -26.71% | -4.25% | 25.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 89.83 | 90.61 | 91.39 | 92.17 | 92.96 | 93.76 | 96.57 |
| Payout Ratio | 89.05% | 89.24% | 89.43% | 89.62% | 89.81% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 80.00 | 80.86 | 81.73 | 82.60 | 83.49 | 84.38 | 89.33 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -0.14% | 0.86% | 1.86% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 75.29 | 76.04 | 76.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 70.85 | 72.28 | 73.72 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 66.68 | 68.70 | 70.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 62.75 | 65.30 | 67.93 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 59.05 | 62.07 | 65.21 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,874.12 | 1,969.86 | 2,069.47 |
| Equity Value (M) | 2,208.74 | 2,314.25 | 2,423.88 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 400.00 | 400.00 | 400.00 |
| Fair Value | $5.52 | $5.79 | $6.06 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.08% | 53.06% | 60.31% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTBT | Bit Digital, Inc. | 0.25% | $0.01 | 1.17% |
| PVH | PVH Corp. | 0.25% | $0.17 | 2.41% |
| AEL | American Equity Investment Life Holding Company | 0.24% | $0.14 | 2.19% |
| CRS | Carpenter Technology Corporation | 0.24% | $0.80 | 9.74% |
| L | Loews Corporation | 0.24% | $0.25 | 3.58% |
| PRIM | Primoris Services Corporation | 0.23% | $0.30 | 5.83% |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | 0.23% | $0.48 | 17.39% |
| FOCS | Focus Financial Partners Inc. | 0.22% | $0.12 | 19.23% |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.18 | 2.50% |
| RMAX | RE/MAX Holdings, Inc. | 0.22% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| VSEC | VSE Corporation | 0.22% | $0.40 | 30.98% |
| 0J5I.L | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 0.21% | $0.60 | 8.71% |
| PRVAX | Virginia Tax Free Bond Fund | 0.21% | $0.02 | 89.04% |
| ACA | Arcosa, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.20 | 6.66% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 0.19% | $0.40 | 11.24% |
| USLM | United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | 0.19% | $0.23 | 5.04% |
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.40 | 10.65% |
| BELFA | Bel Fuse Inc. | 0.18% | $0.28 | 5.31% |
| TILE | Interface, Inc. | 0.18% | $0.05 | 2.63% |
| 0K05.L | Medifast, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 78.63% |
| AYI | Acuity Brands, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.65 | 5.19% |
| BDC | Belden Inc. | 0.17% | $0.20 | 3.53% |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | 0.17% | $1.70 | 7.18% |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.66 | 3.24% |
| STCN | Steel Connect, Inc. | 0.17% | $0.02 | 1.98% |
| VVI | Viad Corp | 0.17% | $0.07 | 0.54% |
| ALNT | Allient Inc. | 0.16% | $0.09 | 7.91% |
| CLSK | CleanSpark, Inc. | 0.16% | $0.02 | 1.41% |
| EME | EMCOR Group, Inc. | 0.16% | $1.01 | 4.01% |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies Inc. | 0.16% | $0.32 | 2.76% |
| CW | Curtiss-Wright Corporation | 0.15% | $0.87 | 7.08% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | 0.15% | $0.46 | 6.11% |
| SPCMU | Sound Point Acquisition Corp I, Ltd | 0.15% | $0.02 | 1.33% |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.24 | 4.34% |
| JBL | Jabil Inc. | 0.14% | $0.33 | 5.48% |
| PFIE | Profire Energy, Inc. | 0.14% | $0.00 | 1.99% |
| 0R0A.L | Hecla Mining Company | 0.13% | $0.02 | 5.24% |
| GNW | Genworth Financial, Inc. | 0.13% | $0.01 | 2.27% |
| ONIT | Onity Group Inc. | 0.13% | $0.06 | 1.46% |
| 0A7O.L | MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.12% | $0.19 | 0.73% |
| 0KGS.L | Pegasystems Inc. | 0.12% | $0.07 | 4.63% |
| PRTAX | T. Rowe Price Tax-Free Income Fd | 0.12% | $0.01 | 89.04% |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | 0.12% | $0.22 | 3.25% |
| GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | 0.11% | $0.75 | 12.15% |
| MPLF.L | Marble Point Loan Financing Limited | 0.11% | $0.07 | 92.98% |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group Corp. | 0.10% | $0.04 | 2.34% |
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners, Inc. | 0.10% | $0.07 | 0.85% |
| IR | Ingersoll Rand Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 5.89% |
| RAL | Ralliant Corp. | 0.10% | $0.05 | 2.75% |
| TXT | Textron Inc. | 0.10% | $0.08 | 1.79% |