Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ugreen Group Ltd (301606.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.52 - $58.46$39.09
Multi-Stage$20.70 - $22.58$21.62
Blended Fair Value$30.36
Current Price$63.98
Upside-52.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS12.20%0.00%0.300.000.140.440.260.170.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-67.23%69.77%53.57%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.00%0.32%0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)358.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.4775.9245.55
Cash Retained (M)358.39358.39358.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.47-75.92-45.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)236.92282.47312.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.90414.90414.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.570.680.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.52$39.09$58.46
Upside / Downside-56.99%-38.91%-8.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607.34646.81688.85733.63781.32832.10857.06
Payout Ratio40.99%50.79%60.59%70.40%80.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.95328.53417.40516.45626.60748.89792.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)295.88298.69301.49
Year 2 PV (M)338.58345.03351.54
Year 3 PV (M)377.29388.12399.16
Year 4 PV (M)412.28428.14444.44
Year 5 PV (M)443.78465.22487.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,721.157,045.797,382.84
Equity Value (M)8,588.978,970.989,366.95
Shares Outstanding (M)414.90414.90414.90
Fair Value$20.70$21.62$22.58
Upside / Downside-67.64%-66.20%-64.71%

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