Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhongjin Irradiation Incorporated Company (300962.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.36 - $15.69$10.46
Multi-Stage$5.48 - $5.98$5.73
Blended Fair Value$8.10
Current Price$16.64
Upside-51.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.16%22.84%0.260.280.250.150.230.190.170.020.100.03
YoY Growth---6.32%11.94%68.43%-35.47%18.30%15.77%698.80%-78.45%227.99%-11.26%
Dividend Yield--1.71%1.79%1.52%0.87%0.66%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.28%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)102.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.5612.857.71
Cash Retained (M)66.9466.9466.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.56-12.85-7.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.3854.0959.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.06264.06264.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.36$10.46$15.69
Upside / Downside-55.80%-37.11%-5.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)102.79109.47116.58124.16132.23140.83145.05
Payout Ratio34.88%45.90%56.93%67.95%78.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.8550.2566.3784.37104.43126.74134.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45.2645.6946.12
Year 2 PV (M)53.8654.8855.92
Year 3 PV (M)61.6763.4565.25
Year 4 PV (M)68.7771.4174.13
Year 5 PV (M)75.1978.8282.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,142.531,197.711,255.01
Equity Value (M)1,447.281,511.971,579.02
Shares Outstanding (M)264.06264.06264.06
Fair Value$5.48$5.73$5.98
Upside / Downside-67.06%-65.59%-64.06%

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