Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Anhui Hyea Aromas Co., Ltd. (300886.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $4.21$3.53
Multi-Stage$4.08 - $4.47$4.27
Blended Fair Value$3.90
Current Price$28.35
Upside-86.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-70.22%-40.70%0.000.050.050.150.030.220.130.130.190.34
YoY Growth---99.02%6.41%-67.50%348.35%-84.54%65.45%0.00%-31.03%-42.95%252.56%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.30%0.21%0.58%0.11%0.31%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.823.642.18
Cash Retained (M)21.6621.6621.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.82-3.64-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.8418.0219.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.6274.6274.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Fair Value$2.90$3.53$4.21
Upside / Downside-89.78%-87.54%-85.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.1129.2029.2929.3829.4729.5630.45
Payout Ratio25.58%38.47%51.35%64.23%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.4511.2315.0418.8722.7326.6128.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1110.2110.31
Year 2 PV (M)12.1812.4312.68
Year 3 PV (M)13.7614.1814.61
Year 4 PV (M)14.9115.5216.15
Year 5 PV (M)15.7116.5217.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)237.62249.83262.53
Equity Value (M)304.30318.69333.65
Shares Outstanding (M)74.6274.6274.62
Fair Value$4.08$4.27$4.47
Upside / Downside-85.62%-84.93%-84.23%

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