Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Weihai Guangwei Composites Co., Ltd. (300699.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.66 - $130.38$122.19
Multi-Stage$232.45 - $255.14$243.58
Blended Fair Value$182.88
Current Price$30.35
Upside502.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.56%29.92%0.530.440.310.310.310.220.130.000.020.02
YoY Growth--19.54%40.00%0.00%0.00%40.00%67.69%0.00%-100.00%9.92%-57.12%
Dividend Yield--1.69%1.45%0.98%0.85%0.73%0.72%0.50%0.00%0.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)541.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)438.37
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.2067.6340.58
Cash Retained (M)102.63102.63102.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.20-67.63-40.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5.5735.0162.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)825.21825.21825.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate-18.41%-18.41%-18.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.66$122.19$130.38
Upside / Downside264.63%302.59%329.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)541.00576.17613.62653.51695.98741.22763.46
Payout Ratio81.03%82.82%84.62%86.41%88.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)438.37477.20519.23564.71613.90667.10706.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-18.41%-18.41%-18.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)579.42584.91590.40
Year 2 PV (M)765.49780.07794.79
Year 3 PV (M)1,010.861,039.871,069.44
Year 4 PV (M)1,334.301,385.611,438.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,760.501,845.531,933.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)186,368.60195,370.27204,716.46
Equity Value (M)191,819.16201,006.27210,543.30
Shares Outstanding (M)825.21825.21825.21
Fair Value$232.45$243.58$255.14
Upside / Downside665.90%702.58%740.66%

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