Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Doctorglasses Chain Co.,Ltd. (300622.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.94 - $23.64$15.63
Multi-Stage$8.32 - $9.07$8.69
Blended Fair Value$12.16
Current Price$32.14
Upside-62.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.59%27.58%0.780.280.450.320.190.230.090.090.140.21
YoY Growth--179.62%-38.98%44.10%63.33%-15.81%153.53%0.00%-33.33%-35.65%210.68%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.64%2.11%1.74%1.14%1.89%0.85%0.76%0.60%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6013.508.10
Cash Retained (M)48.3848.3848.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.60-13.50-8.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.7834.8840.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)189.55189.55189.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.180.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.94$15.63$23.64
Upside / Downside-65.97%-51.37%-26.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.98114.99122.47130.43138.91147.94152.37
Payout Ratio55.20%62.16%69.12%76.08%83.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.6071.4884.6599.23115.35133.14140.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)64.4365.0465.65
Year 2 PV (M)68.7870.0971.41
Year 3 PV (M)72.6874.7676.89
Year 4 PV (M)76.1579.0882.09
Year 5 PV (M)79.2483.0687.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,216.351,275.101,336.10
Equity Value (M)1,577.621,647.141,719.18
Shares Outstanding (M)189.55189.55189.55
Fair Value$8.32$8.69$9.07
Upside / Downside-74.10%-72.96%-71.78%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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