Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Newamstar Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd (300509.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.20 - $60.71$21.91
Multi-Stage$28.77 - $31.73$30.22
Blended Fair Value$26.07
Current Price$9.08
Upside187.08%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%0.00%0.130.120.120.140.130.130.160.120.080.00
YoY Growth--13.68%2.63%-15.49%1.13%6.53%-20.83%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.74%2.13%1.80%1.92%2.20%2.10%1.91%1.50%0.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5012.197.31
Cash Retained (M)32.7532.7532.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.50-12.19-7.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.2520.5725.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$11.20$21.91$60.71
Upside / Downside23.36%141.33%568.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.5297.7397.9498.1598.3698.57101.53
Payout Ratio66.41%71.13%75.85%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.7669.5174.2879.0783.8888.7193.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)67.7968.4869.16
Year 2 PV (M)70.6572.0873.53
Year 3 PV (M)73.3575.5977.88
Year 4 PV (M)75.8978.9982.19
Year 5 PV (M)78.2782.3086.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,286.058,712.149,155.57
Equity Value (M)8,652.019,089.589,544.82
Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
Fair Value$28.77$30.22$31.73
Upside / Downside216.80%232.83%249.50%

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