Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Longhua Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (300263.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.59 - $34.86$32.67
Multi-Stage$20.34 - $22.31$21.30
Blended Fair Value$26.99
Current Price$8.20
Upside229.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.73%6.53%0.060.030.040.030.020.020.010.010.020.02
YoY Growth--114.69%-15.28%16.61%49.82%-1.11%107.46%0.00%-49.96%18.47%-51.26%
Dividend Yield--0.84%0.46%0.45%0.37%0.31%0.32%0.15%0.16%0.29%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3619.6011.76
Cash Retained (M)60.9460.9460.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.36-19.60-11.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)29.5841.3449.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)894.36894.36894.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.59$32.67$34.86
Upside / Downside260.85%298.42%325.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.78166.97177.82189.38201.69214.80221.24
Payout Ratio61.13%66.91%72.68%78.45%84.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.84111.71129.24148.57169.87193.32204.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)108.28109.30110.33
Year 2 PV (M)121.42123.73126.06
Year 3 PV (M)135.29139.17143.13
Year 4 PV (M)149.93155.70161.63
Year 5 PV (M)165.38173.37181.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,507.4418,353.0519,231.03
Equity Value (M)18,187.7419,054.3319,953.85
Shares Outstanding (M)894.36894.36894.36
Fair Value$20.34$21.30$22.31
Upside / Downside148.00%159.82%172.08%

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