Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Newcapec Electronics Co., Ltd. (300248.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.02 - $9.00$5.81
Multi-Stage$2.97 - $3.24$3.10
Blended Fair Value$4.46
Current Price$13.15
Upside-66.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.01%16.58%0.090.070.070.070.070.060.070.050.050.03
YoY Growth--21.32%-0.98%10.27%-5.39%22.81%-20.53%30.59%15.58%57.02%60.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.85%0.59%0.44%0.77%0.57%0.70%0.61%0.34%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1311.967.17
Cash Retained (M)55.1655.1655.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.13-11.96-7.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.0343.2047.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)476.17476.17476.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.02$5.81$9.00
Upside / Downside-69.45%-55.79%-31.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.65101.87108.49115.54123.05131.05134.98
Payout Ratio42.34%51.87%61.40%70.93%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4952.8466.6181.9699.01117.94124.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)47.7048.1648.61
Year 2 PV (M)54.3055.3356.38
Year 3 PV (M)60.3262.0563.81
Year 4 PV (M)65.7968.3270.92
Year 5 PV (M)70.7574.1777.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,114.581,168.411,224.31
Equity Value (M)1,413.441,476.441,541.75
Shares Outstanding (M)476.17476.17476.17
Fair Value$2.97$3.10$3.24
Upside / Downside-77.43%-76.42%-75.38%

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