Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhenjiang Dongfang Electric Heating Technology Co.,Ltd (300217.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.42 - $5.21$3.45
Multi-Stage$1.81 - $1.97$1.89
Blended Fair Value$2.67
Current Price$5.71
Upside-53.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.17%13.23%0.070.020.020.010.010.020.010.010.030.01
YoY Growth--245.25%3.23%50.89%50.00%-50.00%100.00%0.00%-68.89%107.01%-33.33%
Dividend Yield--1.38%0.39%0.31%0.27%0.29%0.70%0.27%0.30%0.70%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)188.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)114.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.7223.5814.15
Cash Retained (M)114.18114.18114.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.72-23.58-14.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)76.4590.60100.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,490.341,490.341,490.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.42$3.45$5.21
Upside / Downside-57.61%-39.49%-8.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)188.62200.88213.94227.85242.66258.43266.18
Payout Ratio39.47%49.57%59.68%69.79%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.4599.59127.68159.01193.87232.59246.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)89.7590.6091.46
Year 2 PV (M)103.71105.69107.68
Year 3 PV (M)116.41119.75123.15
Year 4 PV (M)127.91132.83137.89
Year 5 PV (M)138.31144.99151.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,117.712,220.002,326.20
Equity Value (M)2,693.802,813.862,938.30
Shares Outstanding (M)1,490.341,490.341,490.34
Fair Value$1.81$1.89$1.97
Upside / Downside-68.34%-66.93%-65.47%

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