Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co., Ltd. (300151.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.36 - $10.75$5.42
Multi-Stage$2.31 - $2.52$2.42
Blended Fair Value$3.92
Current Price$12.96
Upside-69.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.16%18.88%0.130.200.180.180.000.060.030.030.030.03
YoY Growth---33.86%13.48%-4.09%0.00%-100.00%100.00%-5.22%-6.56%23.66%7.19%
Dividend Yield--0.88%1.26%0.86%0.84%0.00%0.75%0.41%0.38%0.26%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)69.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.808.635.18
Cash Retained (M)16.8616.8616.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.80-8.63-5.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.068.2311.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)547.19547.19547.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.36$5.42$10.75
Upside / Downside-74.06%-58.15%-17.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)69.0273.5078.2883.3788.7994.5697.40
Payout Ratio75.57%78.46%81.34%84.23%87.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.1557.6763.6770.2277.3585.1090.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.5753.0753.57
Year 2 PV (M)52.9153.9254.94
Year 3 PV (M)53.2054.7256.28
Year 4 PV (M)53.4155.4757.58
Year 5 PV (M)53.5856.1658.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,000.831,049.171,099.36
Equity Value (M)1,266.501,322.511,380.57
Shares Outstanding (M)547.19547.19547.19
Fair Value$2.31$2.42$2.52
Upside / Downside-82.14%-81.35%-80.53%

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