DDM Analysis: 1954.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21,502.37 - $66,858.64	$62,654.15
Multi-Stage	$9,947.84 - $10,892.36	$10,411.38
Blended Fair Value	$36,532.77
Current Price	$3,370.00
Upside	984.06%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2012
DPS	8.26%	3.82%	76.23	0.00	79.01	78.88	79.15	51.26	51.13	38.51	12.81	37.52
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	0.17%	-0.34%	54.40%	0.26%	32.76%	200.52%	-65.84%	-28.39%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.14%	0.00%	2.77%	2.50%	2.65%	1.34%	2.20%	1.56%	0.57%	2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,082.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,899.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,183.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,016.40	635.25	381.15
Cash Retained (M)	3,183.00	3,183.00	3,183.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,016.40	-635.25	-381.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,166.60	2,547.75	2,801.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	15.06	15.06	15.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	143.86	169.17	186.04
LTM Dividend per Share	126.09	126.09	126.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	143.86	169.17	186.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	269.95	295.26	312.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Fair Value	$21,502.37	$62,654.15	$66,858.64
Upside / Downside	538.05%	1,759.17%	1,883.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,082.00	5,392.04	5,720.99	6,070.01	6,440.33	6,833.23	7,038.23
Payout Ratio	37.37%	47.89%	58.42%	68.95%	79.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,899.00	2,582.45	3,342.22	4,185.08	5,118.35	6,149.91	6,510.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.10%	6.10%	7.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,403.78	2,426.65	2,449.52
Year 2 PV (M)	2,895.75	2,951.12	3,007.01
Year 3 PV (M)	3,375.16	3,472.42	3,571.53
Year 4 PV (M)	3,842.23	3,990.56	4,143.14
Year 5 PV (M)	4,297.20	4,505.56	4,721.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	133,005.90	139,455.00	146,151.88
Equity Value (M)	149,820.02	156,801.31	164,045.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	15.06	15.06	15.06
Fair Value	$9,947.84	$10,411.38	$10,892.36
Upside / Downside	195.19%	208.94%	223.22%

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Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. (1954.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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