Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AK Medical Holdings Limited (1789.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.42 - $22.90$14.01
Multi-Stage$6.62 - $7.24$6.92
Blended Fair Value$10.47
Current Price$5.46
Upside91.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.47%4.18%0.040.050.020.030.070.030.030.070.040.09
YoY Growth---25.05%156.69%-34.70%-51.32%134.45%0.43%-56.23%45.84%-48.78%219.97%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.98%0.25%0.61%0.60%0.37%0.75%2.64%1.90%3.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)484.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)376.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.8160.5136.31
Cash Retained (M)376.46376.46376.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.81-60.51-36.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)279.64315.95340.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,118.411,118.411,118.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Fair Value$9.42$14.01$22.90
Upside / Downside72.44%156.54%319.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)484.07515.40548.77584.29622.12662.39682.26
Payout Ratio22.23%35.78%49.34%62.89%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.61184.44270.75367.48475.58596.15631.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate5.47%6.47%7.47%
Year 1 PV (M)167.08168.66170.25
Year 2 PV (M)222.19226.42230.70
Year 3 PV (M)273.18281.02289.02
Year 4 PV (M)320.28332.60345.27
Year 5 PV (M)363.69381.26399.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,060.816,353.626,657.65
Equity Value (M)7,407.227,743.588,092.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,118.411,118.411,118.41
Fair Value$6.62$6.92$7.24
Upside / Downside21.30%26.81%32.52%

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