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Shanghai Pioneer Holding Ltd (1345.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.09 - $3.22$2.62
Multi-Stage$4.68 - $5.14$4.91
Blended Fair Value$3.76
Current Price$1.94
Upside93.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-11.21%0.070.070.070.110.190.000.000.180.120.16
YoY Growth--0.56%-8.45%-34.83%-40.32%0.00%0.00%-100.00%51.08%-24.11%-26.65%
Dividend Yield--3.02%4.00%3.68%8.18%23.09%0.00%0.00%9.18%4.86%6.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)268.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.6133.5120.11
Cash Retained (M)104.38104.38104.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.61-33.51-20.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.7770.8784.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,167.201,167.201,167.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.09$2.62$3.22
Upside / Downside7.84%34.81%65.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)268.07265.39262.74260.11257.51254.93262.58
Payout Ratio61.06%66.85%72.64%78.43%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.69177.41190.85203.99216.85229.44242.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)164.74166.42168.10
Year 2 PV (M)164.55167.92171.33
Year 3 PV (M)163.31168.37173.52
Year 4 PV (M)161.21167.89174.78
Year 5 PV (M)158.38166.62175.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,648.124,890.155,142.17
Equity Value (M)5,460.305,727.376,005.11
Shares Outstanding (M)1,167.201,167.201,167.20
Fair Value$4.68$4.91$5.14
Upside / Downside141.14%152.93%165.20%

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