Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (0ROY.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.27 - $84.75$64.60
Multi-Stage$14.00 - $15.34$14.66
Blended Fair Value$39.63
Current Price$5.71
Upside594.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.39%5.41%0.060.060.060.050.050.050.050.040.040.04
YoY Growth--15.70%-0.15%9.74%-2.07%9.77%-0.35%10.36%0.00%14.00%-0.87%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.55%0.59%0.40%0.56%0.58%0.64%0.68%0.93%0.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)521.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)156.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)365.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)104.3265.2039.12
Cash Retained (M)365.50365.50365.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-104.32-65.20-39.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.18300.30326.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,211.291,211.291,211.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$22.27$64.60$84.75
Upside / Downside290.05%1,031.40%1,384.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)521.60549.71579.34610.56643.47678.15698.50
Payout Ratio29.93%41.94%53.96%65.97%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)156.10230.56312.59402.79501.81610.34646.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.00%6.00%6.00%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)215.44217.50219.56
Year 2 PV (M)272.93278.18283.49
Year 3 PV (M)328.62338.15347.87
Year 4 PV (M)382.55397.42412.72
Year 5 PV (M)434.76455.99478.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,319.4516,067.4116,844.30
Equity Value (M)16,953.7417,754.6518,585.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,211.291,211.291,211.29
Fair Value$14.00$14.66$15.34
Upside / Downside145.12%156.70%168.72%

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