Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nongshim Co., Ltd. (004370.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$481,573.36 - $990,054.27$676,054.81
Multi-Stage$485,345.32 - $531,782.78$508,131.41
Blended Fair Value$592,093.11
Current Price$431,500.00
Upside37.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.56%2.26%4,812.234,812.273,849.723,849.803,849.753,849.713,849.713,850.013,849.723,849.67
YoY Growth--0.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.27%1.02%1.29%1.36%1.33%1.25%1.26%1.29%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)164,017.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29,705.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)134,311.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,803.4420,502.1512,301.29
Cash Retained (M)134,311.26134,311.26134,311.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,803.44-20,502.15-12,301.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)101,507.82113,809.11122,009.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.016.016.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share16,895.4418,942.9320,307.92
LTM Dividend per Share4,944.394,944.394,944.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share16,895.4418,942.9320,307.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend21,839.8423,887.3225,252.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Fair Value$481,573.36$676,054.81$990,054.27
Upside / Downside11.60%56.68%129.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)164,017.18171,154.33178,602.04186,373.85194,483.83202,946.72209,035.13
Payout Ratio18.11%32.49%46.87%61.24%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29,705.9255,606.6383,705.21114,143.89147,073.14182,652.05193,357.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.04%8.04%8.04%
Growth Rate3.35%4.35%5.35%
Year 1 PV (M)50,976.0251,469.2551,962.48
Year 2 PV (M)70,344.6671,712.5173,093.54
Year 3 PV (M)87,936.8090,514.1393,141.34
Year 4 PV (M)103,870.12107,948.91112,146.67
Year 5 PV (M)118,255.44124,088.26130,149.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,484,571.662,607,120.452,734,457.89
Equity Value (M)2,915,954.703,052,853.513,194,950.92
Shares Outstanding (M)6.016.016.01
Fair Value$485,345.32$508,131.41$531,782.78
Upside / Downside12.48%17.76%23.24%

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