Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Truelove Vogue Co., Ltd. (003041.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.23 - $47.33$34.23
Multi-Stage$131.25 - $145.04$138.00
Blended Fair Value$86.12
Current Price$23.93
Upside259.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS126.13%8.29%0.520.330.150.000.000.010.030.020.170.21
YoY Growth--57.20%120.74%1,011,277.58%-98.18%-90.76%-71.44%31.57%-85.89%-20.41%-11.09%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.53%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.0031.2518.75
Cash Retained (M)180.14180.14180.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.00-31.25-18.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.15148.89161.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.901.031.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.391.521.61
WACC / Discount Rate3.30%3.30%3.30%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Fair Value$25.23$34.23$47.33
Upside / Downside5.43%43.04%97.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.98247.26244.57241.91239.28236.68243.78
Payout Ratio27.94%40.35%52.76%65.17%77.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.8499.77129.04157.66185.65213.01225.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.30%3.30%3.30%
Growth Rate-2.09%-1.09%-0.09%
Year 1 PV (M)95.6096.5897.56
Year 2 PV (M)118.49120.92123.38
Year 3 PV (M)138.73143.02147.41
Year 4 PV (M)156.54163.03169.72
Year 5 PV (M)172.11181.08190.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,219.3019,168.8920,157.67
Equity Value (M)18,900.7719,873.5220,886.15
Shares Outstanding (M)144.01144.01144.01
Fair Value$131.25$138.00$145.04
Upside / Downside448.47%476.70%506.08%

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