Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Taitan Co.,Ltd. (003036.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.72 - $46.54$17.24
Multi-Stage$5.08 - $5.55$5.31
Blended Fair Value$11.28
Current Price$17.40
Upside-35.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%16.83%0.440.170.080.060.000.000.000.480.040.12
YoY Growth--157.79%128.90%25.88%16,660.76%0.00%0.00%-100.00%1,052.65%-65.61%28.70%
Dividend Yield--3.57%1.72%0.55%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.996.253.75
Cash Retained (M)17.6217.6217.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.99-6.25-3.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.6211.3713.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.51213.51213.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.72$17.24$46.54
Upside / Downside-49.88%-0.92%167.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.9753.2156.6760.3664.2868.4670.51
Payout Ratio64.74%69.79%74.85%79.90%84.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.3537.1442.4248.2254.6161.6165.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)34.1434.4634.79
Year 2 PV (M)35.8436.5237.21
Year 3 PV (M)37.4638.5339.63
Year 4 PV (M)38.9940.4942.03
Year 5 PV (M)40.4442.3944.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)898.41941.80986.86
Equity Value (M)1,085.281,134.201,184.94
Shares Outstanding (M)213.51213.51213.51
Fair Value$5.08$5.31$5.55
Upside / Downside-70.79%-69.47%-68.11%

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