Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qingdao CHOHO Industrial Co., Ltd (003033.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.02 - $280.44$110.04
Multi-Stage$38.89 - $42.50$40.66
Blended Fair Value$75.35
Current Price$61.99
Upside21.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.94%18.87%0.700.680.460.410.020.280.330.460.080.11
YoY Growth--3.19%49.64%11.76%2,178.16%-93.69%-13.18%-28.87%473.38%-29.67%-8.87%
Dividend Yield--1.57%2.60%1.23%1.67%0.06%0.85%0.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)53.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.1820.7312.44
Cash Retained (M)112.32112.32112.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.18-20.73-12.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.1491.5899.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.971.121.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.02$110.04$280.44
Upside / Downside1.67%77.51%352.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.88176.66188.14200.37213.40227.27234.09
Payout Ratio32.29%43.83%55.37%66.92%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)53.5677.43104.18134.08167.43204.54216.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.22%8.22%8.22%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.8871.5572.22
Year 2 PV (M)87.2988.9690.63
Year 3 PV (M)102.84105.79108.80
Year 4 PV (M)117.54122.07126.71
Year 5 PV (M)131.45137.80144.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,665.632,794.382,928.06
Equity Value (M)3,175.633,320.543,470.82
Shares Outstanding (M)81.6681.6681.66
Fair Value$38.89$40.66$42.50
Upside / Downside-37.27%-34.41%-31.44%

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