Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Jihong Technology Co., Ltd. (002803.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.36 - $131.59$123.32
Multi-Stage$20.67 - $22.62$21.63
Blended Fair Value$72.47
Current Price$18.58
Upside290.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.14%28.87%0.520.460.030.130.120.310.100.050.020.04
YoY Growth--14.20%1,304.95%-75.27%11.82%-61.77%201.66%87.65%213.30%-58.43%1.04%
Dividend Yield--4.14%2.61%0.15%0.89%0.39%1.91%0.69%0.37%0.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)262.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.5832.8619.72
Cash Retained (M)132.09132.09132.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.58-32.86-19.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)79.5199.23112.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$68.36$123.32$131.59
Upside / Downside267.90%563.70%608.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)262.88279.97298.17317.55338.19360.17370.98
Payout Ratio49.75%57.80%65.85%73.90%81.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.79161.83196.35234.67277.15324.15343.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)150.79152.21153.64
Year 2 PV (M)170.46173.71176.99
Year 3 PV (M)189.83195.28200.83
Year 4 PV (M)208.89216.92225.18
Year 5 PV (M)227.64238.64250.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,265.267,616.187,980.52
Equity Value (M)8,212.878,592.948,987.22
Shares Outstanding (M)397.31397.31397.31
Fair Value$20.67$21.63$22.62
Upside / Downside11.25%16.40%21.74%

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