Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Xiamen Kingdomway Group Company (002626.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.15 - $15.30$11.85
Multi-Stage$28.15 - $31.03$29.56
Blended Fair Value$20.71
Current Price$20.14
Upside2.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.56%5.62%0.240.260.660.670.650.920.450.230.080.17
YoY Growth---8.43%-60.48%-1.28%3.35%-29.30%104.02%95.00%189.66%-52.21%20.14%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.71%2.72%2.23%1.64%4.15%3.27%1.25%0.57%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)482.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)220.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)96.4260.2636.16
Cash Retained (M)220.51220.51220.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-96.42-60.26-36.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.10160.25184.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)609.63609.63609.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.260.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Fair Value$9.15$11.85$15.30
Upside / Downside-54.57%-41.14%-24.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)482.09478.71475.37472.04468.74465.46479.43
Payout Ratio54.26%61.41%68.56%75.70%82.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.57293.96325.89357.35388.36418.92443.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.10%5.10%5.10%
Growth Rate-1.70%-0.70%0.30%
Year 1 PV (M)276.89279.71282.52
Year 2 PV (M)289.13295.04301.02
Year 3 PV (M)298.63307.84317.23
Year 4 PV (M)305.69318.32331.34
Year 5 PV (M)310.59326.72343.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,677.3616,491.1717,338.43
Equity Value (M)17,158.3018,018.7918,914.04
Shares Outstanding (M)609.63609.63609.63
Fair Value$28.15$29.56$31.03
Upside / Downside39.75%46.76%54.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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