Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co., Ltd. (002472.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.82 - $122.19$61.20
Multi-Stage$24.51 - $26.79$25.63
Blended Fair Value$43.42
Current Price$49.81
Upside-12.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.91%11.83%0.190.170.230.140.180.200.170.120.060.07
YoY Growth--13.03%-26.58%62.44%-19.42%-12.04%18.72%36.39%94.19%-14.45%19.03%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.72%0.87%0.68%2.05%4.08%2.29%1.31%0.57%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,184.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)941.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)236.86148.0488.82
Cash Retained (M)941.81941.81941.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-236.86-148.04-88.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)704.95793.78852.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)839.54839.54839.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.951.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$37.82$61.20$122.19
Upside / Downside-24.07%22.87%145.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,184.281,261.261,343.241,430.551,523.541,622.571,671.25
Payout Ratio20.47%34.38%48.28%62.19%76.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.47433.61648.58889.661,159.331,460.311,545.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)395.35399.10402.85
Year 2 PV (M)539.17549.44559.80
Year 3 PV (M)674.32693.68713.40
Year 4 PV (M)801.19832.00863.69
Year 5 PV (M)920.14964.581,010.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,246.3818,079.3818,944.27
Equity Value (M)20,576.5421,518.1722,494.74
Shares Outstanding (M)839.54839.54839.54
Fair Value$24.51$25.63$26.79
Upside / Downside-50.79%-48.54%-46.21%

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