Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tianjin Lisheng Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd. (002393.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.57 - $37.07$27.47
Multi-Stage$51.92 - $57.21$54.51
Blended Fair Value$40.99
Current Price$23.32
Upside75.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.20%0.82%0.470.210.210.070.210.210.220.230.300.23
YoY Growth--121.11%0.00%200.00%-66.86%0.59%-4.45%-1.71%-24.51%32.34%-47.70%
Dividend Yield--2.81%1.19%1.30%0.42%1.66%1.23%1.08%1.09%1.08%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)386.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)284.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.2048.2528.95
Cash Retained (M)284.94284.94284.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.20-48.25-28.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.74236.69255.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.920.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Fair Value$20.57$27.47$37.07
Upside / Downside-11.78%17.80%58.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)386.02387.76389.51391.27393.04394.82406.66
Payout Ratio26.18%38.95%51.71%64.47%77.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.07151.02201.42252.27303.57355.34376.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-0.55%0.45%1.45%
Year 1 PV (M)142.07143.50144.92
Year 2 PV (M)178.25181.85185.49
Year 3 PV (M)210.01216.41222.94
Year 4 PV (M)237.74247.45257.45
Year 5 PV (M)261.78275.21289.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,353.4412,987.1313,646.56
Equity Value (M)13,383.2814,051.5414,746.55
Shares Outstanding (M)257.77257.77257.77
Fair Value$51.92$54.51$57.21
Upside / Downside122.64%133.75%145.31%

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