Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.,Ltd (002284.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.96 - $26.17$16.21
Multi-Stage$9.66 - $10.58$10.11
Blended Fair Value$13.16
Current Price$13.04
Upside0.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.39%5.38%0.110.110.150.040.030.030.130.130.120.07
YoY Growth---5.68%-24.02%257.18%54.16%7.03%-81.02%1.85%7.86%69.23%13.29%
Dividend Yield--1.09%1.45%1.85%0.55%0.53%0.54%2.30%1.68%0.87%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)337.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.8648.0428.82
Cash Retained (M)337.24337.24337.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.86-48.04-28.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)260.37289.20308.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)738.49738.49738.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Fair Value$10.96$16.21$26.17
Upside / Downside-15.94%24.30%100.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.31403.52423.70444.89467.14490.50505.22
Payout Ratio12.25%27.80%43.35%58.90%74.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.07112.17183.67262.04347.78441.45467.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.95%7.95%7.95%
Growth Rate4.00%5.00%6.00%
Year 1 PV (M)102.92103.91104.90
Year 2 PV (M)154.62157.61160.63
Year 3 PV (M)202.41208.30214.31
Year 4 PV (M)246.48256.10266.00
Year 5 PV (M)287.06301.13315.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,138.536,439.386,751.91
Equity Value (M)7,132.037,466.447,813.50
Shares Outstanding (M)738.49738.49738.49
Fair Value$9.66$10.11$10.58
Upside / Downside-25.94%-22.47%-18.86%

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