Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Goertek Inc. (002241.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.30 - $63.28$33.68
Multi-Stage$14.40 - $15.72$15.05
Blended Fair Value$24.36
Current Price$37.50
Upside-35.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.08%14.20%0.390.240.270.190.160.170.150.120.100.10
YoY Growth--63.35%-12.21%42.56%16.92%-3.96%14.16%24.66%21.07%1.29%-5.85%
Dividend Yield--1.50%1.45%1.28%0.56%0.61%1.04%1.39%0.90%0.58%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,907.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,185.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,721.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)581.46363.41218.05
Cash Retained (M)1,721.551,721.551,721.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-581.46-363.41-218.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,140.091,358.141,503.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,476.713,476.713,476.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.340.340.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.30$33.68$63.28
Upside / Downside-43.21%-10.20%68.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,907.303,096.273,297.533,511.873,740.143,983.254,102.75
Payout Ratio40.79%50.63%60.47%70.31%80.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,185.751,567.591,994.052,469.342,997.993,584.933,795.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,427.081,440.611,454.14
Year 2 PV (M)1,652.621,684.101,715.87
Year 3 PV (M)1,863.091,916.581,971.07
Year 4 PV (M)2,059.222,138.412,219.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,241.662,349.942,462.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,816.0642,787.4944,834.37
Equity Value (M)50,059.7352,317.1254,657.67
Shares Outstanding (M)3,476.713,476.713,476.71
Fair Value$14.40$15.05$15.72
Upside / Downside-61.60%-59.87%-58.08%

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