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Definitive Analysis

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Bank of Ningbo Co., Ltd. (002142.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.87 - $860.08$753.99
Multi-Stage$108.11 - $118.33$113.13
Blended Fair Value$433.56
Current Price$26.43
Upside1,540.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.53%22.39%2.242.061.601.461.161.091.531.260.850.79
YoY Growth--8.69%28.52%10.11%25.66%6.45%-28.90%21.70%48.26%6.87%167.36%
Dividend Yield--8.68%9.58%5.87%3.89%3.12%4.94%7.22%6.92%6.27%8.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,865.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,935.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,930.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,773.003,608.132,164.88
Cash Retained (M)21,930.0021,930.0021,930.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,773.00-3,608.13-2,164.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)16,157.0018,321.8819,765.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,674.386,674.386,674.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.422.752.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.422.752.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.463.784.00
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.87$753.99$860.08
Upside / Downside799.99%2,752.77%3,154.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,865.0030,741.2332,739.4034,867.4737,133.8539,547.5540,733.98
Payout Ratio24.03%37.22%50.42%63.61%76.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,935.0011,442.0416,505.7022,179.2828,520.7035,592.8037,678.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,589.6710,690.0510,790.42
Year 2 PV (M)14,138.1314,407.4214,679.25
Year 3 PV (M)17,582.6618,087.4018,601.70
Year 4 PV (M)20,925.5221,730.2622,557.99
Year 5 PV (M)24,168.9225,336.2926,548.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)634,166.07664,796.53696,599.29
Equity Value (M)721,570.98755,047.95789,776.99
Shares Outstanding (M)6,674.386,674.386,674.38
Fair Value$108.11$113.13$118.33
Upside / Downside309.05%328.02%347.71%

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