Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.,Ltd (002050.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.69 - $67.97$38.19
Multi-Stage$16.93 - $18.48$17.69
Blended Fair Value$27.94
Current Price$48.43
Upside-42.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.05%21.50%0.360.260.260.240.210.150.150.150.050.04
YoY Growth--37.50%2.72%5.11%14.96%46.07%-1.26%1.54%168.49%50.91%-30.78%
Dividend Yield--1.26%1.09%1.00%1.47%1.03%1.18%1.51%1.38%0.77%0.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,039.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,399.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,640.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)807.91504.94302.97
Cash Retained (M)2,640.452,640.452,640.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-807.91-504.94-302.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,832.542,135.502,337.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,948.663,948.663,948.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.540.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.69$38.19$67.97
Upside / Downside-49.01%-21.15%40.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,039.554,302.124,581.764,879.575,196.755,534.535,700.57
Payout Ratio34.64%45.71%56.78%67.85%78.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,399.101,966.422,601.573,310.994,101.644,981.085,273.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,787.171,804.111,821.05
Year 2 PV (M)2,148.902,189.832,231.15
Year 3 PV (M)2,485.582,556.932,629.64
Year 4 PV (M)2,798.452,906.073,016.76
Year 5 PV (M)3,088.693,237.873,392.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,526.4057,160.0559,894.49
Equity Value (M)66,835.1869,854.8672,985.85
Shares Outstanding (M)3,948.663,948.663,948.66
Fair Value$16.93$17.69$18.48
Upside / Downside-65.05%-63.47%-61.83%

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