Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. (001965.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.88 - $149.48$140.09
Multi-Stage$31.75 - $34.80$33.24
Blended Fair Value$86.66
Current Price$9.74
Upside789.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.70%16.02%0.810.570.500.320.410.230.330.220.500.66
YoY Growth--41.39%13.95%59.06%-23.84%80.94%-31.44%50.13%-55.74%-24.26%262.63%
Dividend Yield--6.10%5.15%5.92%4.04%5.27%3.30%3.63%2.37%4.39%5.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,174.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,067.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,106.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,034.82646.77388.06
Cash Retained (M)4,106.824,106.824,106.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,034.82-646.77-388.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,071.993,460.053,718.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,883.836,883.836,883.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$126.88$140.09$149.48
Upside / Downside1,202.63%1,338.25%1,434.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,174.125,510.445,868.626,250.086,656.347,089.007,301.67
Payout Ratio20.63%34.50%48.38%62.25%76.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,067.311,901.232,839.043,890.755,067.176,380.106,754.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.44%5.44%5.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,786.171,803.101,820.03
Year 2 PV (M)2,505.812,553.542,601.72
Year 3 PV (M)3,226.243,318.853,413.22
Year 4 PV (M)3,947.464,099.274,255.41
Year 5 PV (M)4,669.464,895.005,129.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)202,396.19212,172.00222,321.96
Equity Value (M)218,531.33228,841.76239,541.51
Shares Outstanding (M)6,883.836,883.836,883.83
Fair Value$31.75$33.24$34.80
Upside / Downside225.93%241.31%257.27%

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