Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Shenhuo Coal Industary and Electricity Power Corporation Limited Class A (000933.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.31 - $379.42$355.57
Multi-Stage$57.59 - $63.02$60.25
Blended Fair Value$207.91
Current Price$20.01
Upside939.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.14%6.51%1.221.120.650.100.540.600.700.970.630.00
YoY Growth--8.69%71.62%552.95%-81.61%-9.66%-14.49%-27.18%52.74%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.49%5.53%3.68%0.71%5.72%14.54%13.16%12.89%9.16%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,258.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,906.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,351.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)851.62532.26319.36
Cash Retained (M)2,351.932,351.932,351.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-851.62-532.26-319.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,500.301,819.662,032.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,231.942,231.942,231.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.820.91
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.820.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.531.671.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$175.31$355.57$379.42
Upside / Downside776.10%1,676.95%1,796.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,258.104,534.884,829.655,143.575,477.905,833.976,008.99
Payout Ratio44.77%53.81%62.86%71.91%80.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,906.182,440.343,035.893,698.564,434.545,250.575,558.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,271.622,293.152,314.69
Year 2 PV (M)2,630.622,680.722,731.30
Year 3 PV (M)2,983.253,068.893,156.15
Year 4 PV (M)3,329.593,457.643,589.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,669.743,846.994,031.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)113,641.54119,130.46124,829.47
Equity Value (M)128,526.36134,477.86140,651.97
Shares Outstanding (M)2,231.942,231.942,231.94
Fair Value$57.59$60.25$63.02
Upside / Downside187.78%201.11%214.93%

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