Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Vontron Technology Co., Ltd. (000920.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$86.46 - $101.86$95.46
Multi-Stage$99.06 - $108.73$103.80
Blended Fair Value$99.63
Current Price$12.63
Upside688.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.22%30.68%0.170.110.090.080.070.030.040.030.030.00
YoY Growth--60.28%19.69%14.77%14.29%156.67%-40.00%66.67%0.00%443.05%-58.59%
Dividend Yield--1.91%1.26%0.97%0.85%1.00%0.47%0.59%0.29%0.20%0.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)93.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)148.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.3730.2318.14
Cash Retained (M)148.70148.70148.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.37-30.23-18.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)100.33118.47130.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)472.19472.19472.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$86.46$95.46$101.86
Upside / Downside584.52%655.80%706.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.85257.57274.31292.14311.13331.35341.29
Payout Ratio38.51%48.81%59.11%69.41%79.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)93.14125.72162.14202.76247.98298.21315.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)135.22136.50137.78
Year 2 PV (M)187.56191.14194.74
Year 3 PV (M)252.28259.52266.90
Year 4 PV (M)331.85344.61357.74
Year 5 PV (M)429.23449.96471.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,439.0447,633.7649,912.48
Equity Value (M)46,775.1849,015.4951,341.13
Shares Outstanding (M)472.19472.19472.19
Fair Value$99.06$103.80$108.73
Upside / Downside684.32%721.89%760.88%

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