Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Moon Environment Technology Co.,Ltd. (000811.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.58 - $23.16$16.09
Multi-Stage$8.88 - $9.68$9.27
Blended Fair Value$12.68
Current Price$13.50
Upside-6.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.67%1.47%0.120.210.220.100.100.070.100.070.070.10
YoY Growth---42.35%-2.54%120.98%1.47%37.82%-33.29%51.49%-5.90%-29.04%-1.28%
Dividend Yield--1.28%2.28%2.18%1.14%1.67%1.46%1.40%1.26%0.84%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)582.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)366.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.4472.7843.67
Cash Retained (M)366.77366.77366.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.44-72.78-43.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.33293.99323.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)871.82871.82871.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate10.37%10.37%10.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.58$16.09$23.16
Upside / Downside-14.22%19.20%71.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)582.21620.06660.36703.28749.00797.68821.61
Payout Ratio37.00%47.60%58.20%68.80%79.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.44295.17384.35483.87594.71717.91759.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.37%10.37%10.37%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)264.93267.44269.95
Year 2 PV (M)309.63315.53321.48
Year 3 PV (M)349.88359.92370.16
Year 4 PV (M)385.97400.81416.08
Year 5 PV (M)418.20438.40459.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,009.146,299.396,600.74
Equity Value (M)7,737.758,081.498,437.78
Shares Outstanding (M)871.82871.82871.82
Fair Value$8.88$9.27$9.68
Upside / Downside-34.26%-31.34%-28.31%

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