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Guoyuan Securities Company Limited (000728.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.24 - $123.76$115.98
Multi-Stage$16.59 - $18.14$17.35
Blended Fair Value$66.66
Current Price$9.13
Upside630.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.43%14.44%0.390.380.390.370.300.380.330.360.330.13
YoY Growth--2.42%-4.08%5.52%26.03%-21.82%15.03%-7.91%8.95%155.43%27.98%
Dividend Yield--4.99%5.68%5.84%5.23%3.85%5.13%3.50%4.40%2.71%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,689.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,411.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,277.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)537.85336.16201.69
Cash Retained (M)1,277.521,277.521,277.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-537.85-336.16-201.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)739.67941.361,075.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$38.24$115.98$123.76
Upside / Downside318.89%1,170.30%1,255.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,689.252,864.053,050.213,248.473,459.633,684.503,795.04
Payout Ratio52.50%60.00%67.50%75.00%82.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,411.731,718.322,058.812,436.302,854.163,316.053,510.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,592.721,607.811,622.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,768.821,802.511,836.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,940.131,995.832,052.58
Year 4 PV (M)2,106.752,187.772,271.10
Year 5 PV (M)2,268.762,378.352,492.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)62,007.5465,002.5368,112.15
Equity Value (M)71,684.7274,974.8078,387.37
Shares Outstanding (M)4,321.574,321.574,321.57
Fair Value$16.59$17.35$18.14
Upside / Downside81.68%90.02%98.67%

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