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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Int'l Group Co.,Ltd. (000411.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.74 - $181.78$170.36
Multi-Stage$28.95 - $31.66$30.28
Blended Fair Value$100.32
Current Price$11.23
Upside793.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.46%9.50%0.550.390.340.290.230.360.240.240.170.19
YoY Growth--41.23%14.28%18.41%25.87%-37.61%51.91%-1.20%43.90%-11.45%-13.66%
Dividend Yield--5.24%3.59%2.73%2.37%2.01%3.85%2.07%1.23%0.85%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)493.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)188.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.6161.6336.98
Cash Retained (M)188.85188.85188.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.61-61.63-36.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.24127.22151.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)539.39539.39539.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.240.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.730.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$96.74$170.36$181.78
Upside / Downside761.46%1,416.98%1,518.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)493.03525.07559.20595.55634.26675.49695.76
Payout Ratio61.70%67.36%73.02%78.68%84.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.18353.68408.32468.57534.93607.94643.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)329.60332.72335.85
Year 2 PV (M)354.62361.37368.19
Year 3 PV (M)379.24390.13401.22
Year 4 PV (M)403.48419.00434.96
Year 5 PV (M)427.33447.97469.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,718.9514,381.5815,069.57
Equity Value (M)15,613.2216,332.7717,079.19
Shares Outstanding (M)539.39539.39539.39
Fair Value$28.95$30.28$31.66
Upside / Downside157.76%169.64%181.96%

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