Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. (YKBNK.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$289.24 - $1,045.84$916.83
Multi-Stage$131.35 - $143.77$137.45
Blended Fair Value$527.14
Current Price$33.94
Upside1,453.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1,053.28%38.67%1.210.940.120.060.000.000.000.000.000.05
YoY Growth--28.94%691.05%100.00%1,111,115.56%-10.00%19.05%10.53%2.70%-99.99%3.09%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.30%1.24%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44,421.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,202.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)34,218.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,884.265,552.663,331.60
Cash Retained (M)34,218.7034,218.7034,218.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,884.26-5,552.66-3,331.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)25,334.4428,666.0430,887.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,447.058,447.058,447.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.003.393.66
LTM Dividend per Share1.211.211.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.003.393.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.214.604.86
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$289.24$916.83$1,045.84
Upside / Downside752.21%2,601.32%2,981.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44,421.2847,308.6650,383.7253,658.6657,146.4860,861.0062,686.83
Payout Ratio22.97%36.37%49.78%63.19%76.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,202.5817,208.1525,081.3533,905.3643,770.5254,774.9057,985.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)15,926.2416,077.2016,228.16
Year 2 PV (M)21,483.7021,892.9022,305.96
Year 3 PV (M)26,878.5227,650.1128,436.32
Year 4 PV (M)32,114.2533,349.2734,619.58
Year 5 PV (M)37,194.3338,990.8340,856.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)975,938.551,023,076.751,072,019.03
Equity Value (M)1,109,535.591,161,037.061,214,465.15
Shares Outstanding (M)8,447.058,447.058,447.05
Fair Value$131.35$137.45$143.77
Upside / Downside287.01%304.98%323.61%

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