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Definitive Analysis

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XRF Scientific Limited (XRF.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.96 - $27.58$25.84
Multi-Stage$3.87 - $4.24$4.05
Blended Fair Value$14.95
Current Price$1.84
Upside712.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS27.54%7.88%0.030.030.020.020.010.010.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth--25.42%34.41%26.05%28.56%23.51%233.33%25.00%-20.00%-66.35%-43.57%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.92%1.65%2.68%2.50%4.01%1.61%1.49%1.65%5.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.852.411.45
Cash Retained (M)11.1511.1511.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.85-2.41-1.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.308.749.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.97138.97138.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.96$25.84$27.58
Upside / Downside441.08%1,304.48%1,398.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.2720.5221.8623.2824.7926.4027.19
Payout Ratio42.12%51.70%61.27%70.85%80.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.1210.6113.3916.4919.9423.7625.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.859.9410.04
Year 2 PV (M)11.5511.7711.99
Year 3 PV (M)13.2113.5813.97
Year 4 PV (M)14.8215.4015.98
Year 5 PV (M)16.4117.2018.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)472.56495.39519.09
Equity Value (M)538.40563.28589.09
Shares Outstanding (M)138.97138.97138.97
Fair Value$3.87$4.05$4.24
Upside / Downside110.56%120.29%130.39%

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