Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Waste Management, Inc. (WM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$224.69 - $1,252.38$429.83
Multi-Stage$155.84 - $170.50$163.04
Blended Fair Value$296.43
Current Price$220.83
Upside34.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.67%5.73%2.992.812.672.402.292.171.991.861.801.72
YoY Growth--6.51%5.48%11.03%4.64%5.82%9.23%6.93%3.31%4.46%0.29%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.32%1.63%1.51%1.78%2.34%1.91%2.21%2.46%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,564.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,302.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,262.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)512.80320.50192.30
Cash Retained (M)1,262.001,262.001,262.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-512.80-320.50-192.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)749.20941.501,069.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)404.03404.03404.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.852.332.65
LTM Dividend per Share3.223.223.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.852.332.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.085.555.87
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Fair Value$224.69$429.83$1,252.38
Upside / Downside1.75%94.64%467.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,564.002,709.472,863.193,025.633,197.283,378.683,480.04
Payout Ratio50.78%58.62%66.47%74.31%82.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,302.001,588.401,903.102,248.402,626.763,040.813,219.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.67%5.67%6.67%
Year 1 PV (M)1,469.911,483.951,497.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,629.761,661.051,692.63
Year 3 PV (M)1,781.831,833.381,885.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,926.382,001.052,077.88
Year 5 PV (M)2,063.672,164.152,268.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,093.7256,727.4959,462.87
Equity Value (M)62,965.2665,871.0768,885.80
Shares Outstanding (M)404.03404.03404.03
Fair Value$155.84$163.04$170.50
Upside / Downside-29.43%-26.17%-22.79%

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